Call it an upset if you want. The scorecards — 93-97, 92-98, 93-97 — certainly looked that way on the surface. Nathan Heaney, “The Hitman” of Stoke-on-Trent, former British middleweight champion, 19-1-1 coming in. Gerome Warburton, “The Bread Maker” from Wales, 16-2-2, a solid but not spectacular record. On paper, Heaney was the clear favourite.
The CompuBox data tells a completely different story. By the numbers, this wasn’t an upset. Warburton was the better fighter from Round 3 onwards — and the stats prove it beyond reasonable doubt.
Nathan Heaney (now 19-2-1) came in as the home favourite — a 36-year-old orthodox middleweight at 6’1” with a 74” reach and a reputation as one of the busiest fighters on the British scene. He throws punches in volume and has carried that approach to a former British title.
Gerome Warburton (now 17-2-2), the 30-year-old Welshman, entered as the stylistic challenge — a southpaw who had been written off by many in the build-up. He left with the biggest win of his career.
Rounds 1 and 2 were close. Heaney landed 10 in the opener (23.3%) and 15 in Round 2 (20.5%), his jab doing some work. Warburton was finding his range, landing 6 (16.2%) and 9 (23.7%) respectively. At this point, the scorecards would have been tight.
Round 3 was the turning point. Warburton landed 24 of 71 punches — his best of the night — at 33.8%, with power punches connecting at 42.9% (15 of 35). Heaney managed 15 of 54 (27.8%). Warburton had cracked the code, and he never looked back.
Rounds 4 and 5 saw Warburton press home his advantage. In Round 5, he landed 18 of 49 (36.7%), outworking Heaney’s 9 of 46 (19.6%). Heaney’s jab — his primary tool — was disappearing: just 1 jab landed in both R5 and R6.
Round 6 was emphatic. Warburton landed 19 of 46 at an outstanding 41.3%, power accuracy hitting 45.8%. Heaney landed 9. The gap was growing and the crowd was beginning to sense the narrative shift.
Rounds 7-10 played out the same way. Warburton’s worst round in the second half was Round 7, where he still landed 17 of 56 (30.4%). In Round 9 he hit 40% overall and 52.9% on power shots. In Round 10, Heaney managed only 8 of 49 (16.3%) — that is a fighter running on empty.
| Stat | Heaney | Warburton |
|---|---|---|
| Total landed | 108 | 169 |
| Total thrown | 487 | 515 |
| Overall accuracy | 22.2% | 32.8% |
| Power landed | 86 | 97 |
| Power thrown | 301 | 237 |
| Power accuracy | 28.6% | 40.9% |
Warburton out-landed Heaney 169 to 108 — that is 57% more punches landed across 10 rounds. Heaney threw 487 punches, an average of nearly 49 per round. A high-volume approach is his identity. But Warburton’s power accuracy of 40.9% versus Heaney’s 28.6% means every exchange was being won by the Welshman.
The jab collapse is the most damning individual stat for Heaney. He landed zero jabs in Round 4. One jab in Round 5. One in Round 6. One in Round 7. His jab — the foundation of his entire style — had been entirely neutralised. When a boxer’s jab stops working, everything else stops working too. The CompuBox confirms it: Heaney’s overall accuracy dropped to 21.7% in R7, 21.4% in R8, and a terminal 16.3% in Round 10.
This was not a robbery. This was not a gift to a home fighter. Warburton landed more, landed harder, and landed more accurately across the majority of the contest. The judges saw what the stats show.
Warburton deserved every point of this victory. The “upset” label will stick in the headlines, but anyone who examines the punch stats will recognise what actually happened: a southpaw who was supremely well-prepared, took an early look at his opponent, then dominated from Round 3 to the final bell. Heaney, to his credit, never stopped throwing — but throwing punches and landing them are very different things, and on Saturday night Warburton made that difference count.
For pre-fight analysis, see the Heaney vs Warburton fight preview.
A sensational night at Co-op Live Arena — here are all our reviews:
Was the Warburton vs Heaney result a robbery? No. The CompuBox data shows Warburton out-landed Heaney 169 to 108 across the 10 rounds — a margin of 57% more punches landed. Warburton also significantly out-performed Heaney on power punch accuracy (40.9% to 28.6%).
When did the fight turn? Round 3 was the turning point. Warburton landed 24 punches at 33.8% and his power accuracy hit 42.9%. From that round onwards, he out-landed Heaney in every single round.
What happened to Nathan Heaney’s jab? It essentially disappeared from Round 4 onwards — Heaney landed zero jabs in R4, and only one each in R5, R6, and R7. Without his jab working, his overall accuracy dropped dramatically, falling to just 16.3% in the final round.
What is next for Gerome Warburton? At 30 years old and 17-2-2, Warburton has earned a significant step up with this result. A British title shot or a ranking fight in the WBO/WBC rankings would be a natural next step following his biggest career win.
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